Gold is back in the spotlight of financial markets, and the reasons are much deeper than just another reaction to news. At the end of November 2025, the metal rose to its highest level in more than a week—and although there was a slight correction afterwards, the overall dynamics suggest the market is entering a phase where even moderate signals from the Federal Reserve can shift sentiment by dozens of dollars per session.

An interesting situation is unfolding: amid discussions of potential U.S. rate cuts, gold is rising despite a strong dollar. A major new player—Tether—has emerged on the market, quietly but steadily becoming the largest holder of gold outside of central banks. All of this occurs as the global economy closely monitors postponed macro data from the U.S., which could set the tone for the markets for months to come.

Monetary Signals from the Fed: The Key Driver Not to Be Ignored

Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have become the primary catalyst for gold's rise. Statements from Christopher Waller and John Williams were softer than markets expected: both officials conceded that rate cuts could happen in the "near future," with Waller specifically noting that the labor market has cooled enough to warrant an additional rate cut.

For gold, this is a direct positive signal: the value of bars increases as yields fall and real rates weaken.

When investors expect Fed easing, gold benefits for two reasons:

1. The opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset decreases.
2. Demand for safe-haven assets rises amid potential economic slowdown.

This logic was confirmed in quotes: earlier in the day, gold surged over 2%, hitting a new high since November 14. A slight correction followed, but market interest remained high, as evidenced by the futures market, which remained in positive territory.

A Strong Dollar is No Longer an Obstacle—A Worrying Signal for Global Markets

Typically, a strong dollar is a headwind for gold. The metal becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, which traditionally puts downward pressure on the price. Currently, the dollar remains near a six-month high; however, gold still remains strong. This is an important point: such divergence indicates a structural change in demand.

The Market Indicates That:

• Investors are willing to buy gold even amid an expensive dollar.
• The protective aspect is becoming more significant than traditional correlations.
• Expectations for rate cuts outweigh the effects of the currency exchange rate.

Such periods often precede medium-term gold rallies.

The Unexpected Role of Tether: A New Major Buyer That Can Shift Market Balance

Arguably, one of the most underestimated yet significant developments is the sharp increase in demand for gold from Tether. The company has already acquired about 116 tons of the metal, making it the largest buyer outside central banks. This is a rare occurrence where the cryptocurrency business becomes a structural player in the commodities market.

Why is this important?

• Tether is purchasing gold not speculatively but as part of a reserve strategy, which stabilizes demand.
• The volume of 116 tons is substantial, comparable to the annual purchases of small countries.
• The presence of the crypto sector in physical gold increases trust among investors focused on digital assets.

This scenario creates a "domino effect": when one major player publicly increases reserves, it encourages other institutional investors to reconsider their portfolios in favor of gold.

The Market Awaits Data: Volatility Increases, but This Works in Gold's Favor

Recent sessions have been characterized by increased volatility, primarily because the publication of important U.S. economic reports has been delayed. Investors are anticipating retail sales figures and producer price index data, which will help clarify the likelihood of a rate cut in December.

According to market expectations:

• The probability of a rate cut in December is around 81%.
• The likelihood of a change in January is 86%.

Such figures inevitably push gold higher, and even current fluctuations do not alter the overall trend.

Technical Picture: The Market Corrects After a Spike, But the Structure Remains Bullish

From a technical perspective, gold is experiencing a normal correction after a sharp jump.

Current Levels:

• The spot price has retraced by 0.2% to approximately $4,130 per ounce.
• However, this is still significantly higher than middle-of-the-month levels.

Current supports are forming near the $4,050–$4,080 zone, while resistances are around $4,160–$4,200. As long as the price holds above the local low, the bullish scenario remains preferred. The market indicates that buyers are ready to enter on dips, and short corrections are an opportunity to build positions rather than panic.

Forecasts: Gold Could Reach $4,700

Some analysts are already claiming that structural dollar weakness could push gold to $4,700 per ounce by 2026. While this sounds ambitious, it seems realistic considering:

• The rate cut cycle,
• The growing risk of a global economic slowdown,
• Increasing demand from institutional and digital players,
• Gradual decline in real yields,
• High levels of geopolitical uncertainty.

Global funds have already begun reevaluating positions, once again including gold in long-term strategic portfolios.

What's Next: Growth, Pause, or Reversal?

Several scenarios exist, each supported by strong arguments:

1. Continued Growth. This becomes the base case if U.S. data reinforces the likelihood of a December rate cut. Then, gold could test peaks above $4,200 and establish a new range.
2. Temporary Pause. A correction is likely if the dollar reaches new highs or inflation data turns out unexpectedly strong. However, even in this case, demand for gold will remain consistently high—the market structure has changed.
3. Sharp Reversal. This is only possible under one condition: if the Fed signals it is not ready to cut rates in the coming months. Currently, the probability of such a scenario appears low.

Conclusion: Gold Enters a New Strategic Cycle—The Start of a Long-Term Story

The gold market is currently driven by several fundamental forces—a dovish Fed rhetoric, unexpected activity from major players like Tether, structural dollar weakness, and rising safe-haven demand. This creates a rare situation in which gold rises even amid a strong U.S. currency and high macro data uncertainty.

Such a combination typically leads to prolonged bullish phases, and all indicators suggest that 2025–2026 could be such a period.