For the second day in a row, gold maintains a negative dynamic, trading near the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which was tested three days ago. Traders have scaled back expectations of more aggressive monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve after last week's producer price index data showed signs of mounting inflationary pressures. In addition, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid noted on Thursday that the current monetary policy stance of the central bank is "moderately restrictive," expressing caution regarding a September rate cut.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also stressed the importance of maintaining a moderately restrictive policy to fight inflation. She pointed out that the main problem is that inflation remains too high and is moving in an undesirable direction. This has supported the dollar's weekly advance, thereby putting pressure on gold for the second consecutive day. At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, said that fresh inflation data prompted him to reconsider the question of rate cuts, indicating that the September policy meeting could result in concrete action.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated her readiness for a September rate cut, taking into account risks related to weaker employment and rising tariffs. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 75% probability of a Fed rate cut and expect at least two 25-basis-point reductions before year-end. These expectations were reinforced by Thursday's data, which showed that over three months, jobless claims rose to the highest level in years, while continuing claims reached the highest level in almost four years.

Against this backdrop, it makes sense to closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for new signals on a potential rate cut. This, in turn, will have a significant impact on the short-term dynamics of the U.S. dollar and determine the next stage of movement for low-yielding gold.

From a technical perspective, the Asian session low around 3325 is holding off immediate downside ahead of the 100-day SMA, currently located at 3315. A sustained break below this area could serve as a key trigger for bears. A move lower through the psychological 3300 level toward support at 3270 — and a subsequent break of that level — against the backdrop of slightly negative daily chart oscillators, would suggest that the path is open for deeper losses.

On the other hand, the 3340–3350 level has become a significant near-term barrier. A new wave of short covering above this zone would lift the precious metal toward resistance at 3375. Momentum could then extend toward the psychological 3400 level before XAU/USD targets the supply zone at 3440–3435.