According to the data, the U.S. unemployment rate reached 4.6%—a level not seen since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although conditions in the country's labor market continue to deteriorate, the probability of a further interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January this year stands at only 20%.

The Bureau of Statistics report states that job growth in the U.S. remained sluggish in November. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 64,000 following a decline of 105,000 in October. However, the data exceeded economists' forecasts, which had anticipated an increase of 50,000. Given that the October job losses—the largest since the end of 2020—were driven by a sharp drop in federal employment due to the shutdown, the overall picture does not look as dire.

The market's initial reaction was driven by concerns that the weakening labor market would force the Fed to change its monetary policy. However, further analysis showed that other indicators, such as the number of job openings and wage growth, remain relatively resilient. This suggests that while the labor market is facing certain challenges, it is still far from being in a crisis state.

Let me remind you that last week the Federal Reserve cut rates for the third consecutive meeting in order to support, in the words of Chairman Jerome Powell, a gradual cooling of the labor market amid significant risks of further slowdown. However, opinions within the Fed are divided on the need for additional rate cuts next year. According to forecasts published alongside the decision, the Fed as a whole expects only one rate cut in 2026, though some policymakers see no prospects for a more accommodative policy.

Job growth in November was driven by gains in healthcare and social assistance, as well as construction. In the private sector, employment increased by 69,000 in November after rising by 52,000 the previous month. Employment declined in transportation and warehousing, as well as in leisure and hospitality.

A separate report published on Tuesday said that U.S. retail sales were virtually unchanged in October, as lower sales at auto dealers and reduced gasoline receipts offset increased spending in other categories. Business activity in the U.S. grew at the slowest pace in six months in December.

As for the current technical picture in EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on breaking above the 1.1750 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1770. From there, a move toward 1.1800 is possible, but achieving this without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the high at 1.1835. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, I expect any serious action from major buyers only around the 1.1715 level. If no one appears there, it would be reasonable to wait for a retest of the 1.1685 low or to open long positions from 1.1650.

As for the current technical picture in GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3385. Only this will allow them to aim for 1.3420, above which a breakout would be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the 1.3450 level. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to seize control of 1.3340. If successful, a break of this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3320 low, with the potential to move down to 1.3285.