Analysis of trades and recommendations for trading the euro

The test of the 1.1578 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Confirmation of inflation forecasts in the eurozone allows the European Central Bank to continue following a conservative approach to interest rates without resorting to drastic measures. With inflation holding around 2.0%, the regulator can avoid sharp changes in monetary policy, considering the fragile state of the global economy and the persistent risks of recession in several eurozone countries. ECB representatives have repeatedly stated that their decisions will be based on incoming economic data, and the current inflation situation gives them room for maneuver.

Despite the fact that the actual data matched preliminary estimates, core inflation in the eurozone still slightly exceeds the ECB's 2% target. This means that the regulator cannot fully abandon a wait-and-see stance regarding future monetary policy.

In the second half of the day, market participants are awaiting the release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, as well as fresh data on the U.S. trade balance. The speech of John Williams, a member of the FOMC, will also attract investors' attention. The publication of the Fed minutes increases interest in speculations about the future U.S. monetary strategy. Traders will carefully analyze the document for signs of disagreement within the FOMC regarding the pace and scale of rate cuts. The overall tone of the minutes will indicate how confident FOMC members are in slowing inflation and stable economic growth.

The upcoming speech by John Williams, who holds dovish views, will generate particular interest. His support for further monetary easing may put additional pressure on the Fed.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the level of 1.1595 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1615. At 1.1615, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point movement from the entry point. Counting on euro growth today is feasible only after dovish rhetoric from Fed representatives. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1565 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels 1.1595 and 1.1615 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1565 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1546, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point reversal). Pressure on the pair will return if the Fed representatives take a hawkish stance.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1595 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels 1.1565 and 1.1546 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.