Měřítko dolaru po krátkodobém oddechu obnovilo pokles, protože obavy z rozšiřující se obchodní války snížily poptávku po amerických aktivech.
Zelená bankovka se dostala na nové šestiměsíční minimum a klesla vůči všem měnám skupiny 10. K rizikové náladě přispěla nová omezení Trumpovy administrativy na vývoz čipů společnosti Nvidia Corp. do Číny. To podpořilo přístavy jako švýcarský frank a jen, zatímco euro vzrostlo o téměř 1 %.
„Všechna tato nejistota a řeči o dalších clech podporují myšlenku zbavit se rizika z amerických aktiv – prodávat dolar,“ řekl Rodrigo Catril, hlavní devizový stratég National Australia Bank Ltd. v Sydney. „Euro a švýcarský frank jsou hlavními kandidáty tohoto toku, a to i v době, kdy se obchodní válka stupňuje a globální růst se zhoršuje.“
Spotový dolarový index Bloomberg ve středu klesl až o 0,6 % poté, co v úterý poprvé za posledních šest dní vzrostl. Ukazatel se v dubnu dosud propadl o více než 3 %, což je na cestě k nejprudšímu měsíčnímu poklesu od konce roku 2022, a to v souvislosti s prohlubujícími se obavami z recese v USA způsobené obchodní válkou a přitažlivostí dolaru jako bezpečného přístavu.
Dalším příkladem oslabení důvěry v tradiční bezpečná americká aktiva jsou státní dluhopisy, které minulý týden utrpěly nejhorší výprodej za více než dvacet let v důsledku obav, že zahraniční držitelé, jako je Čína, snižují jejich vlastnictví.
Previously, I already drew an allegory between the events surrounding the U.S. Bureau of Statistics and Donald Trump and George Orwell's novel 1984. In my view, Trump has read this novel very attentively (ironically) and is an ardent admirer of the Ministry of Truth. What is the Ministry of Truth in the novel? It's a state institution responsible for all information flows delivered to the public. Simply put, it covered newspapers, official statements, and statistics. The Ministry of Truth not only delivered information favorable to the government to the masses but also blatantly manipulated facts, distorted statistics, and falsified real data. Many economists fear that the U.S. Bureau of Statistics may soon suffer the same fate.
For example, Elias Haddad, an analyst at the London bank Brown Brothers Harriman, believes that MacEntarfer's dismissal will undermine market trust in the reliability of economic data. Honestly, this is an undeniable conclusion. If Trump is willing to fire the director of the Bureau of Statistics for "unfavorable" data, it's clear he wants to control the information reaching the public and markets. And if he wants control, then he'll likely also want to "improve" certain figures. Statistics, like accounting, may seem like a precise science at first glance, but there are plenty of loopholes and ambiguous ways to interpret a given indicator. Trump has found many ways to bypass U.S. laws, so "manually improving" statistics shouldn't pose a problem for him.
From now on, market participants will price in a significant degree of risk into any positive report from the U.S. The risk lies in the fact that many economists will question the numbers that suddenly begin to rise sharply. Trump will undoubtedly say the economy is booming, and therefore all other indicators are improving. But trust in the Bureau of Statistics will now decline sharply. This means that any positive economic report will be met with a great deal of skepticism.
By the way, in the coming months, it will be easy to tell whether Trump has begun to influence the economic data. If the majority of indicators start rising sharply, I will assume he has. In my opinion, such statistics are worthless, and demand for the U.S. dollar will fall even further amid recent developments. And let's not forget that Trump continues to do everything possible to change the composition of the FOMC so that the central bank adopts only dovish decisions.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward trend segment. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The trend segment's targets may extend as far as the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities with targets around 1.1875 (which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci) and higher. Presumably, wave 4 has been completed. Thus, now is a good time to buy.
The wave pattern of GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave picture, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. The upward trend segment's targets are now located around 1.4017. At the moment, I assume that the downward wave 4 has been completed. Therefore, I expect a resumption of the upward wave sequence and consider buying opportunities.
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