Analytical Reviews

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Barclays představuje indikátor akciové euforie v reakci na tržní změny

Společnost Barclays (LON:BARC) představila “Equity Euphoria Indicator” (EEI), který měří náladu na trhu po amerických volbách. Dlouhodobé akciové expozice prudce vzrostly, zatímco hedgeové fondy očekávají růstový potenciál. Globální makrofondové a multistrategické fondy vykazují zdrženlivou aktivitu. Přestože na dluhopisových trzích došlo k výprodeji, odchody z dluhopisových fondů jsou mírné. Posílení USD přimělo spekulativní investory ke zkracování globálních měn, což odráží ekonomický optimismus USA. Systematické fondy snížily objem akcií, což odpovídá historickým průměrům. Fondy CTA zaujaly krátké pozice v Russellu 2000, zvýšily dlouhé pozice v USD, ale sledují potenciální zvraty. EEI zdůrazňuje optimismus podobný éře dot-com a varuje investory. Akcie v blízkosti kapacity signalizují, že je upřednostňována ochrana proti poklesu před vysokými zisky. Institucionální investoři jsou hnací silou upisování callů. Dealeři vykazují krátké pozice, což odráží dynamiku trhu.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast
08:11 2024-08-22 UTC--4

Gold remains on the defensive above the psychological level of $2,500. However, the price decline is tempered by rising expectations of more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Data released on Wednesday showed that job growth in the U.S. up to March of the previous year was weaker than initially expected. Moreover, the July FOMC meeting minutes revealed that several officials were inclined toward an immediate rate cut. Alongside ongoing geopolitical risks, this continues to support the precious metal, suggesting caution before positioning for any significant corrective decline.

Traders may also prefer to wait for the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday before opening new positions. Meanwhile, U.S. economic news set to be released today could create short-term trading opportunities for gold later in the North American session.

From a technical perspective, the price movement within the range observed since the beginning of this week can be seen as a bullish consolidation phase before the next upward move. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory and are still far from overbought levels, confirming a short-term constructive outlook. Consequently, a return to retesting the all-time high reached on Tuesday seems like a likely possibility. Some subsequent buying could be seen as a new trigger for bulls, supporting the continuation of the recent well-established upward trend.

On the other hand, any significant pullback could continue to attract buyers near the round level of $2,500. This should help limit the price decline near the $2,480 resistance level. A decisive break below this level could trigger technical selling, dragging the XAU/USD pair down to the horizontal support at $2,455 on the way to $2,430. The corrective decline could potentially extend further to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently near the $2,400 level.analytics66c70c6fe1d79.jpg

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Foreign exchange is highly speculative and complex in nature, and may not be suitable for all investors. Forex trading may result in a substantial gain or loss. Therefore, it is not advisable to invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before using the services offered by ForexMart, please acknowledge the risks associated with forex trading. Seek independent financial advice if necessary. Please note that neither past performance nor forecasts are reliable indicators of future results.