Trade Analysis for Wednesday:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair once again exhibited absurd movements on Wednesday. This time, the market ignored positive U.S. macroeconomic data, reaffirming our assumptions about the illogical current strength of the dollar and the independence of the ongoing movement from fundamentals and macroeconomic factors. Recall that on Monday, the ISM manufacturing activity index from the U.S. was ignored, coming in much worse than expected. On Wednesday, the ISM services activity index was also disregarded, which was significantly better than forecasts. Simultaneously, the market paid no attention to the ADP report, which also came in better than expected; however, a figure of +42,000 new jobs for the U.S. economy is, to put it mildly, "below par." Thus, the pair's purely technical decline continues. It is progressing within the flat range of 1.1400–1.1830 on the daily timeframe. This decline may conclude soon, and we continue to anticipate only growth in the medium term.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a new downward trend. The ascending trend line has been breached, and the overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. Thus, solely on technical grounds, the European currency may continue its decline, with the flat on the daily timeframe still being relevant. However, we are awaiting its conclusion and a resumption of the upward trend for 2025.

On Thursday, novice traders can expect to see growth continue, targeting 1.1527, following yesterday's buy signal. A bounce from this level would present an opportunity to open short positions targeting 1.1474. If the level of 1.1527 is breached, long positions can be held with a target at 1.1571.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. On Thursday, reports on retail sales and industrial production in Germany are scheduled for release in the Eurozone. In the U.S., the calendar of events is empty, but at present, the market is hardly paying attention to macroeconomic data.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.