Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1506 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Despite the decline in the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the rise in the services sector mitigated the negative effect, supporting the U.S. dollar. However, even considering the positive data from the services sector, the overall situation remains contradictory. Inflation, while showing signs of slowing, is still significantly above the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%, creating a complex task for the central bank to balance between suppressing inflation and risking economic growth slowdown. Consequently, the upcoming Fed meeting will be a key factor in shaping the dollar's future dynamics.

This morning, data from the German IFO business climate index will be published, including current conditions and economic expectations. Following that, speeches are scheduled from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. Markets will pay particular attention to the German IFO indicators as they reflect confidence in the leading Eurozone economy. Positive data exceeding forecasts could indicate resilience in German industry against current global challenges, which, in turn, would support the euro.

Simultaneously, the speeches by Lagarde and Nagel will be analyzed for signals on the ECB's future policy. Investors will look for hints about the ECB's willingness to proceed cautiously, which would positively impact the European currency.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros at around 1.1530 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1555. At the 1.1555 level, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be anticipated following strong economic data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1516 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. An increase can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1530 and 1.1555.

Selling Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1516 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1495, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1530 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1516 and 1.1495.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.