Ceny ropy pokračovaly v poklesu v pondělí, když klesly o 2 %, protože eskalující obchodní napětí mezi USA a Čínou vyvolalo obavy z recese, která by snížila poptávku po ropě, zatímco OPEC+ připravuje zvýšení nabídky.
„Nejistota kolem politiky tarifů je stále velmi přítomná. Mnoho bank na Wall Street snižuje ekonomické prognózy a zvyšuje pravděpodobnost recese,“ řekl Harry Tchilinguirian z Onyx Capital Group. „To opravdu ovlivňuje náladu.“
Goldman Sachs v pondělí předpověděl 45% šanci na recesi v USA v příštích 12 měsících a revidoval své projekce cen ropy směrem dolů. Citi a Morgan Stanley také snížily své výhledy na Brent. JPMorgan minulý týden uvedl, že vidí 60% pravděpodobnost recese v USA a globálně.
Today, gold is displaying an intraday bearish tone despite rebounding from the $3300 level. Strengthening demand for the US dollar remains the primary factor pressuring gold, limiting its upward movement.
At the same time, expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year are curbing the aggressiveness of dollar bulls, thereby offering support to gold and limiting the dollar's potential for significant strengthening.
Another factor restraining dollar growth is concern that the Trump administration's large-scale tax cuts and spending bill could worsen the US's long-term debt problems. Market sentiment remains volatile amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump's trade policy, prompting increased investor caution.
Early Monday morning, President Trump announced on his social media accounts that US letters regarding tariffs or agreements with various countries would be delivered starting at 12:00 PM on July 7. He also warned that any country supporting the anti-American policy of BRICS would face an additional 10% tariff with no exceptions.
Amid these statements, traders are pricing in over a 70% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of at least two 25-basis-point cuts by year-end. These expectations are preventing gold from falling below the $3300 per ounce level.
In addition, renewed Israeli strikes on Yemen, ongoing for nearly a month, are reducing risk appetite and supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, limiting further downside in its price.
Nevertheless, from a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart have begun to show negative momentum, which suggests the potential for further decline in the precious metal.
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