OPEC downgrades forecast for global oil demand for 2020-2021

According to the September OPEC report, the organization downgraded the forecast for world oil demand for 2020 and 2021 by 0.4 million barrels per day. OPEC now expects a drop in demand by 9.5 million barrels per day this year and an increase of 6.6 million barrels next year. In 2020, demand is expected at 90.2 million barrels per day, and in 2021 – at 96.9 million.

The deterioration is mainly due to a decrease in the level of economic activity in several countries of the Asia-Pacific region due to an increase in the number of cases of infection with Covid-19. Oil demand in India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines in the second quarter was much lower than initially expected. At the same time, the demand for oil in China in the second quarter exceeded expectations.

The organization notes that forecasts for demand may be lowered again due to the risks of a second wave of coronavirus in the world and the difficulties associated with vaccination. Moreover, the restrictions due to the pandemic and the operation of many businesses remotely could prevent the transport sector from fully recovering to pre-crisis levels next year.