The risks of inflation and employment in the United States: a new assessment by the Fed

John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, announced a reduction in inflation risks in the United States while increasing threats to employment. He noted that the risks of inflation and employment are now more balanced, and the reduction in interest rates was justified to ease restrictions. 

At the beginning of the month, the Fed lowered the base rate by 0.25 percentage points, for the first time in 2025. However, there are disagreements within the regulator: some believe that the slowdown in the labor market requires further rate cuts, while others warn of the risk of inflationary pressure due to Donald Trump's tariff policy. Inflation has been exceeding the Fed's 2% target for several years.

Williams did not specify whether he would support a rate cut at the next meeting in October, noting that the impact of tariffs appeared to be moderate, with no signs of increased inflation. He also estimates a neutral rate of 0.75%, adjusted for inflation.