New US sanctions against Russia have inflated oil prices

The global oil market expected an oversupply and stable prices in 2025, but new US sanctions against the Russian energy sector have changed forecasts. Oil prices rose to a 4-month high and continue to rise. The sanctions imposed shortly before the inauguration of Donald Trump are aimed at Russian manufacturers, insurers and tankers, which may limit exports.

RBC Capital Markets forecasts a rise in Brent prices to $85 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs expects an increase to $90 with supplies from Russia and Iran reduced by 1 million barrels per day. However, Goldman Sachs' baseline forecast for 2025 remains at $76 per barrel, taking into account possible discounts on Russian oil and the US desire to lower energy prices.

The situation is aggravated by the reduction of oil reserves in the United States, which have reached their lowest levels since 2014. Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for Brent for this quarter from $72 to $77.50, although this is lower than current quotes. Citigroup believes that the sanctions could affect up to 30% of Russia's «shadow fleet» of tankers, reducing exports to 800,000 barrels per day, although the actual losses could be half as much. Analysts call the US measures unprecedented and stress their risks to global supply.

To date, the price of Brent crude oil has risen to $81.60, while WTI remains at $77.