Oil price continues to decline after OPEC+ decision

At the beginning of trading on August 4, Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.95%, and by mid-afternoon futures for October delivery fell by 1.85%, reaching $68.36 per barrel. The main factor in the decline was OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day from September, which prematurely compensates for some of the previously voluntarily reduced volumes.

Additional pressure on the market was exerted by the news that the BP oil company has discovered the largest oil and gas field off the coast of Brazil in 25 years. This discovery was the most significant for the company since 1999, when Shah Deniz was found in the Caspian Sea.

The negative background was also reinforced by Bloomberg reports on the continuation of Russian oil supplies to India, despite sanctions pressure from the United States and the EU. According to vessel tracking data, four tankers delivered about 3 million barrels of Russian oil to India over the weekend.

Market analysts have noted conflicting signals. Some believe that OPEC+'s decision on production has already been factored into prices, but rising supply increases the risk of an excess of raw materials. A number of experts do not rule out a reduction in Brent prices to $65.8-67 per barrel. Only the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding supplies from Russia can provide support.