Piyasa güncellemeleri ve tahminleri

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Spotřebitelská inflace v Číně na pětiměsíčním maximu, deflace u výrobců přetrvává

Spotřebitelská inflace v Číně v lednu zrychlila na nejvyšší hodnotu za posledních pět měsíců, zatímco deflace cen výrobců přetrvává, což odráží smíšené spotřebitelské výdaje a slabou aktivitu továren.

Podle analytiků deflační tlaky v Číně letos pravděpodobně přetrvají, pokud se tvůrcům politiky nepodaří oživit pomalou domácí poptávku, přičemž cla amerického prezidenta Donalda Trumpa na čínské zboží zvyšují tlak na Peking, aby podpořil růst druhé největší ekonomiky světa.

Index spotřebitelských cen vzrostl minulý měsíc o 0,5 % oproti předchozímu roku, čímž se zrychlil z prosincového růstu o 0,1 %, ukázaly v neděli údaje Národního statistického úřadu, což bylo nad odhadem růstu o 0,4 % v průzkumu agentury Reuters mezi ekonomy.

Jádrová inflace, která nezahrnuje volatilní ceny potravin a pohonných hmot, v lednu zrychlila na 0,6 % z 0,4 % v předchozím měsíci.

XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast
05:14 2024-12-09 UTC--6
Döviz Kurları analizi

Today, gold rallied following Friday's NFP employment report, which clarified expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.

The report kept U.S. Treasury yields at low levels, providing a favorable backdrop for gold. In addition, political instability in South Korea, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over a potential trade war are also offering some support for the price of the precious metal. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less dovish stance in the future, driven by speculation that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies could lead to higher inflation, are limiting the growth of the XAU/USD pair.

Traders remain cautious, refraining from opening significant positions ahead of the release of U.S. consumer inflation data scheduled for this week.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, further strengthening above the supply zone at $2,650 will encounter resistance near $2,666. Additional buying beyond this threshold would serve as a key trigger for bulls, enabling the yellow metal to reclaim the psychological level of $2,700. Momentum could then extend further to the next significant barrier around $2,722.analytics6756b7fc6a5aa.jpg

Conversely, weakness below the immediate support at $2,630–$2,627, corresponding to today's intraday low, could drag the price down to Friday's low near $2,614–$2,613. The next support zone lies at $2,605, which includes the psychological level of $2,600 and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A decisive break below this level would pave the way for deeper losses, exposing the November swing low around $2,537–$2,536.


    






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