Copper may face difficulties in demand and prices in the second half of the year

Citi analysts predict a decline in copper prices in the second half of 2025 amid weakening demand from China and tariff restrictions in the United States. 

In an analytical note, the bank warns that the market will be affected by the consequences of an abnormal increase in copper consumption in May, related to the hype around solar energy in China, as well as the Section 232 tariffs planned by Trump from August 1.

Citi expects prices to fall to $8,800 per ton in the next three months. The bank indicates that preliminary imports to the United States (about 500,000 tons) will cover the country's needs by the end of the year, reducing demand for new supplies.

In addition, sluggish global industrial activity and trade barriers will put additional pressure on prices and spreads outside the United States.

Despite the negative short-term outlook, Citi maintains a positive outlook for the medium term: $10,000 per tonne in 2026 and $11,000 in 2027, due to sustained demand as part of the energy transition.