After yesterday's drop of more than 160 pips due to a highly unfavorable trade deal between the EU and the U.S., the euro's chances of rising toward the upper boundary of the green channel have dwindled to nearly zero.

Now, the focus shifts to the break of the nearest support at 1.1495 (the February 2022 high), which would pave the way for the next target at 1.1380 (resistance in May, support in June of the current year).

On the four-hour chart, the price has paused at the 238.2% Fibonacci reaction level. As the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning upward, a minor correction is possible.

A second pause may occur in the 271.0–261.8% range, which aligns precisely with the July 17 low (marked by a tick). Following that, we anticipate a move toward the target level of 1.1495, which is close to the 361.8% Fibonacci extension.