The Fed will consider a rate cut in the second half of 2025

The US Federal Reserve will consider the possibility of lowering the key interest rate in the second half of 2025. This can happen if import tariffs remain at a reduced level. This opinion was expressed by Christopher Waller, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. 

He noted that with duties reduced to about 10% and the final settlement of this issue closer to July, the Fed will be ready to take steps to reduce the rate in the second half of the year. During the current year, the regulator has left the rate unchanged, after reducing it by 100 basis points last year. This decision of the leadership is explained by the uncertainty caused by Trump's trade policy.

Currently, the base import duty on most goods in the United States is 10%. However, a higher rate of 30% applies to products from China. At the same time, according to Waller, a possible tariff increase from the White House will have a more significant impact on the inflation rate in the country. It will also create additional restrictions for the Fed in terms of short-term interest rate changes.