Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 157.45 coincided with the MACD indicator already moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed a good upward move.

After data showed the US unemployment rate rising to 4.4% in September, the dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Weaker-than-expected unemployment data contributed to the decline in the US currency's value, as market participants became cautious about the US economy's outlook. However, the non-farm payroll report mitigated the negative impact of the unemployment rate report. The number of new jobs created in September exceeded expectations, underscoring the labor market's resilience. Such a reaction in the currency market shows the complex relationship between different economic indicators and expectations regarding monetary policy. In the short term, the yen is likely to remain under pressure due to imminent decisions by the Japanese government regarding economic stimulus.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 157.33 (green line on the chart), with a target of 157.83 (thicker green line on the chart). At 157.83, I plan to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests at the price of 156.94 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels of 157.33 and 157.83.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 156.94 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 156.50, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests at the price of 157.33 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 156.94 and 156.50.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.