Strangely enough, Donald Trump could resolve the situation in Iran. If you look at the problem from the outside, it becomes obvious — the problem will be resolved when Trump resolves it. Iran is incomparably weaker than the United States militarily and economically, and to fight on two fronts (with the US and Israel) is something out of the realm of fantasy. If Trump decides that the country needs a new government, then something similar to the Venezuelan operation will occur.
It should be added that at this time, the Iranian people de facto support Trump. Or, at least, they support Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah of Iran, who is in the United States. Protests to one degree or another have not ceased since 2019, when people took to the streets after fuel prices tripled. The protests were suppressed, and hundreds of demonstrators were killed. However, three years later, the country was swept by a new wave of protests. This time, it was over the rule mandating the hijab. Protests against wearing the hijab did not last long, and very soon shifted to protests against the current authorities.
Moreover, it should be understood that in 2019 the protesters were the poor strata of the population (which make up 80%), and in 2022 they were joined by the middle classes. Dissatisfaction with the government had for years spread to virtually all Iranians, like a virus. In 2022, at least 500 people were killed, which for Iran has become an already customary accompaniment to any protests. And since 2022, protests in the country have not ceased; they have only taken new forms. Iranians protest against everything. They demand higher pensions, job creation, improved water supply, and increased electricity supply. In short, when there is nothing, willingly or unwillingly, you ask for everything.
Donald Trump, who in 2018 unilaterally ended the nuclear deal with Iran, largely started the countdown timer. Since then, Iran's economy has entered a phase of regression, and the lives of Iranians (which were already very difficult) have become even worse. Now, Trump supports the protesters, is ready to strike Iran's institutions of power if they kill peaceful civilians, and supports Reza Pahlavi as the new head of state.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. currency. Targets for the current trend section may extend to the 25th figure. The current upward wave set may be complete, suggesting the instrument faces a near-term decline. The trend segment that begins on November 5 could still take a five-wave form, but for now, it is, in any case, a corrective wave.
The wave pattern has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels.
In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or C has presumably completed its formation, so a downward wave or a set of waves may be observed in the near term.
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