The GBP/USD currency pair initially rose, only to decline on Thursday. Yesterday, reports were released in the U.S. that the market had eagerly anticipated, although we warned in previous articles that these data might not be particularly significant for either the Federal Reserve or the market. This is mainly because the figures published were for September, while it is now almost December. Moreover, the reports themselves raise many questions regarding their accuracy. The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.4%, while the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector increased significantly by 119,000. But that's not all. After the release of the September data, it is extremely difficult to determine the state of the labor market. For several months, it showed disappointing results, but in September, the Fed had just begun cutting the key rate, so the labor market could not have been affected. It appears to have risen on its own without assistance from the Fed. So why did the Fed reduce rates? And most importantly, what will happen next?
The fact that the dollar initially fell and then rose indicates that traders themselves did not understand the implications of this information. The price was unable to consolidate above the Ichimoku indicator lines, thus maintaining a completely illogical downward trend on the hourly timeframe.
On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was formed before the publication of the American data. At the start of the European trading session, the price bounced off 1.3050, allowing traders to remain in long positions throughout the day. Ultimately, the pair reacted to both the Senkou Span B line and the 1.3115 level, providing ample opportunities to close long positions profitably.
COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been changing constantly in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are mostly near the zero mark. Currently, they are at almost the same level, indicating approximately equal amounts of long and short positions.
The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, so market makers' demand for sterling is not particularly significant at the moment. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will, in any case, lower rates in the coming year, leading to a decline in dollar demand in one way or another. According to the latest report (dated September 23) on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,600 contracts over the week. However, this data is already outdated, and there are no new reports.
In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but one must understand that this was due to Donald Trump's policies. Once this reason is mitigated, the dollar may begin to rise, but when this will happen is anyone's guess. It does not matter how fast the net position for the pound is increasing or decreasing. The net position for the dollar is declining in any case, and it is generally declining faster.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has finally breached the trend line and crossed above the Senkou Span B line. However, this proved to be temporary, as the pair drifted into a flat for a week before resuming its decline. In the coming weeks, a continuation of the British pound's growth is expected, but the uncontrolled negative flow from the UK must cease. We believe that growth in the medium term will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental background, but for that to happen, the price needs to surpass the Ichimoku indicator lines.
On November 21, important levels include: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533-1.3548, and 1.3584. The Senkou Span B line (1.3111) and Kijun-sen line (1.3118) can also serve as potential signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. Remember that the Ichimoku indicator's lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.
On Friday, important business activity index releases for November are scheduled in both the UK and the U.S. These are relatively significant data points that could provoke a slight market reaction. The same applies to the U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index.
Today, traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below 1.3050 or if it bounces back from the Ichimoku indicator lines. Long positions will be relevant if the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line, targeting 1.3212.
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