Hrozby amerického prezidenta Donalda Trumpa ohledně cel vyvolávají nejistotu v ekonomikách po celém světě, ale v Evropě stále existuje prostor pro další snižování úrokových sazeb, protože inflace v eurozóně klesá, uvedl v pondělí člen Evropské centrální banky (ECB) Francois Villeroy de Galhau.
„Nacházíme se v období velké nejistoty… Politika Donalda Trumpa nefunguje. Politika Trumpovy administrativy škodí americké ekonomice a bohužel i světové ekonomice,“ řekl Villeroy, který je také guvernérem francouzské centrální banky, v rozhovoru pro rozhlasovou stanici RTL.
Villeroy poukázal na to, že někteří ekonomové dokonce očekávají recesi ve Spojených státech, a dodal: “Protekcionismus nefunguje, znamená nižší růst a vyšší inflaci.“
Villeroy znovu potvrdil, že nevidí riziko recese ve Francii ani v Evropě, protože inflace nadále klesá.
„Stále máme postupný prostor pro snižování sazeb,“ uvedl.
Tvůrci politik ECB jsou stále více přesvědčeni o tom, že v červnu dojde ke snížení úrokových sazeb, protože inflace nadále klesá, ale podle šesti zdrojů, které minulý týden informovaly agenturu Reuters, není zájem o výraznější krok.
ECB snížila svou referenční sazbu na začátku tohoto měsíce na 2,25 %.
On Tuesday, gold reached another record, driven by increased bets on a wave of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
The price of gold rose by 0.6%, reaching a new historic high of over $3,659 per ounce, surpassing the previous high set on Monday. Over the last two sessions, prices rose by 2.5% after unexpectedly weak US employment data on Friday prompted traders to price in at least two rate cuts this year, including a quarter-point cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next week.
Investors are betting that lower interest rates will make gold a more attractive asset since it does not yield interest. Recall that gold has traditionally been considered a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty. During periods of inflation or recession, investors often turn to gold to preserve their capital. The current economic situation, characterized by inflation remaining above target and slowing economic growth, supports the increased demand for gold.
However, some experts warn that one should not blindly follow the trend. The situation in financial markets can change quickly, and gold does not always guarantee protection against losses. They recommend diversifying investment portfolios and not relying solely on gold as a means of preserving capital.
Whether gold can continue its rally, fueled by the prospect of rate cuts, depends on the revision of US employment data to be published later on Tuesday, as well as the tone of producer and consumer inflation data in the US on Wednesday and Thursday. The market's reaction to auctions of short-term and long-term Treasury bonds will also be closely watched.
This year, gold has appreciated by nearly 40% due to central bank purchases, speculation on rate cuts, and increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and concerns about the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on the global economy. Criticism of the Fed's independence by the US president has also contributed to gold's three-year rally.
Analysts and investors generally expect further gold price increases. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has stated that the price of the precious metal could rise to nearly $5,000 per ounce if investors move even a small portion of their assets from Treasuries into gold bullion due to signs of increased political intervention in the central bank.
As for the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to take out the nearest resistance at $3,640. This will allow a move toward $3,682, above which breaking through will be quite challenging. The furthest target is the $3,720 area. If gold falls, bears will attempt to take control of $3,600. If they succeed, a break of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $3,562 with potential to reach $3,526.
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