Wolfe Research analysts, led by Chris Senek, expect employment growth in the coming months with sustained core inflation. In this case, the Fed is likely to keep the rate at 4.25-4.5%. Technology and communication companies are recommended to investors, as well as protective sectors such as essential goods and utilities. The second scenario is stagflation: weak employment growth and accelerated inflation due to tariffs. This is one of the main risks at the end of 2025, at which the Fed is likely to leave the rate unchanged. The third is optimistic: employment growth while inflation slows, which will pave the way for lower rates and support for cyclical sectors such as discretionary operations, finance, semiconductors and transportation. The fourth is a recession: falling prices and employment, to which the Fed will respond with more aggressive rate cuts. In this case, as in the first, preference is given to technology, communications, utilities and basic necessities. Wolfe named Tesla, Kimberly-Clark, MetLife, Southwest Airlines, Super Micro Computer, Vistra Energy, Prologis and Vulcan Materials among the companies with declining profit forecasts.
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