The GBP/USD currency pair traded in various directions on Friday, with low volatility. Overall, the British pound has been in a sideways channel of 1.3096–1.3212 for an entire week. Last week, the British currency could have experienced a significant decline, as the UK's macroeconomic backdrop remained consistently negative. However, it is worth noting that over the past month and a half, the dollar has primarily been strengthening. And although disappointing news occasionally emerged from Britain, the U.S. also faced a continuous flow of negative reports. Therefore, we cannot classify the dollar's rise as entirely logical.
On November 5, a local downtrend began to reverse upwards, potentially indicating that the market was ready to start buying the GBP/USD pair based on the global fundamental background. The market seemed prepared to complete the overall correction that had lasted several months. However, at that moment, the flow of negative news from the UK intensified, preventing the British pound from continuing its ascent. The trend line was broken, but the price could not consolidate above the Senkou Span B line. Thus, the illogical (in general) and corrective decline of the pair may very well resume. If the Senkou Span B line is eventually surpassed, the formation of a new upward trend will begin.
On the 5-minute timeframe, two very good and accurate trading signals were generated on Friday. Initially, the price bounced off the 1.3115 level, and just 15 minutes later, it interacted with the Senkou Span B line and bounced off it. As a result, traders could open long positions initially, followed by short positions just 15 minutes later. Both trades turned out to be profitable.
COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been changing constantly in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are mostly near the zero mark. Currently, they are at almost the same level, indicating approximately equal amounts of long and short positions.
The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, so market makers' demand for sterling is not particularly significant at the moment. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will, in any case, lower rates in the coming year, leading to a decline in dollar demand in one way or another. According to the latest report (dated September 23) on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,600 contracts over the week. However, this data is already outdated, and there are no new reports.
In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but one must understand that this was due to Donald Trump's policies. Once this reason is mitigated, the dollar may begin to rise, but when this will happen is anyone's guess. It does not matter how fast the net position for the pound is increasing or decreasing. The net position for the dollar is declining in any case, and it is generally declining faster.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has finally broken the trendline and surpassed the Senkou Span B line. However, this proved short-lived, leading to a return to the range. In the coming weeks, a continuation of the British pound's rise is expected, but it is critical that the flow of unchecked negativity from the UK ceases. We believe that growth in the medium term will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop.
For November 17, we highlight the following significant levels: 1.2863, 1.2981–1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584. The Senkou Span B line (1.3190) and Kijun-sen (1.3100) may also serve as sources of signals. It is advisable to set stop-loss orders to break even once the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Monday, no important or interesting events are planned in the UK or the U.S. Therefore, trading will likely rely solely on technical analysis, with volatility remaining low and the sideways trend continuing.
On Monday, traders may consider short positions if the price bounces off the 1.3212 level or the Senkou Span B line, targeting 1.3115. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above 1.3212, with a target at 1.3307.
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