EUR/USD

The euro, along with the entire currency and related markets, shifted toward risk yesterday. The price fully consolidated above the MACD indicator line, opening the target at the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1888.

If the price moves beyond the channel boundary, a medium-term uptrend could unfold. However, such growth is only possible if the Fed actually cuts rates three times, which at present looks unrealistic. The issue will only be clarified tomorrow, meaning investors are once again buying into expectations. Should the price return below the MACD line (1.1721), yesterday's breakout would clearly be false. The focus is on the Fed's monetary policy decision.

On the four-hour chart, the price is moving above both indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator is also rising, though noticeably slower than the price. This makes the rally look immature. A move below the MACD line, under 1.1715, will serve as a confirming signal of a euro reversal, opening the target at 1.1632 (the June 12 high).