Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3103 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's bearish potential. The second test at 1.3103 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, prompting trade #2 to buy the pound, which resulted in a loss as the anticipated rise did not materialize.

The appreciation of the dollar and the decline of the pound came after it became clear that many Federal Reserve officials consider it prudent to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2025. The minutes strengthened the dollar's position against other major currencies, as investors revised their expectations for the timing and scale of future interest rate cuts in the U.S. Earlier, the market had expected a more aggressive easing of monetary policy by the end of the year. However, now, given the Fed's more conservative stance, confidence is growing that the dollar will retain its appeal as a relatively high-yielding currency.

Today, the only economic report will be the CBI Industrial Order Balance from the Confederation of British Industry. The market will certainly focus on the CBI report as the only source of an up-to-date view of the state of British industry. Experts predict a slight improvement in this indicator, which could lead to a temporary recovery of the pound, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the current bearish market. Other factors, such as news on the budget from Rachel Reeves, may have a more significant impact on the pound's exchange rate.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches an entry point around 1.3063 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3092 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3092, I plan to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the pound can be anticipated only with very good data today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3046 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3063 and 1.3092.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3046 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3008 level, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20-25 pips from there. Sellers of the pound will reveal themselves with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3063 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3046 and 1.3008.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.