The estimate of US GDP growth in the second quarter has been raised to 3.3%

The U.S. economy grew by 3.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, according to revised data from the Ministry of Commerce. Earlier, it was reported an increase of 3%, while the consensus forecast of analysts suggested an increase in estimates to only 3.1%.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two thirds of GDP, became the main driver: its growth was 1.6% instead of the previously estimated 1.4%. For comparison, the indicator increased by only 0.5% in the first quarter.

Government spending decreased by 0.2% in the second quarter after falling by 0.6% three months earlier. Corporate investments in fixed assets slowed to 3.3% from 7.6% in the first quarter. Capital investments in the housing sector decreased by 4.7% after falling by 1.3%.

Foreign trade also showed weakness: exports decreased by 1.3%, imports fell by 29.8% after a sharp increase at the beginning of the year, when companies actively purchased goods before the imposition of duties.

PCE index inflation in the second quarter was 2% compared to the previous quarter against the initial estimate of 2.1%. In the first quarter, growth was significantly higher, at 3.7%. The core PCE index (excluding food and energy resources) increased by 2.5%, which coincided with the first estimate and was below 3.5% in January-March.