Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1582 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros and missed the upward movement.

Yesterday was marked by the euro's continued strengthening against the US dollar. The main reason for this was optimism among market participants, who are linking their hopes to a swift end to the U.S. government shutdown. After the shutdown ends, incoming economic data from the US will be crucial, as it may provide new guidelines for the dollar's further movement.

Regarding today, Germany's inflation data and Italy's industrial production data will be published in the morning. These indicators are key to assessing the country's economic health and may affect the euro's value. A significant rise in prices will support the euro. At the same time, an increase in industrial production will indicate economic growth and rising consumer demand. However, if the Italian economic indicators are unsatisfactory, this could trigger a decline in the euro.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

• Scenario #1: Today, buying euros can be considered upon reaching a price around 1.1585 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to the level of 1.1611. At 1.1611, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today will depend on strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1571 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels of 1.1585 and 1.1611.

Sell Signal

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros after reaching the level of 1.1571 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1546, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return if the data is very weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1585 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 1.1571 and 1.1546.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.