Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday, and none are significant. If we set aside all the tertiary reports, such as the GfK Consumer Confidence Index in Germany or consumer sentiment in the Eurozone, only the JOLTS report on job openings in the U.S. remains. It should be noted that this report is published with a significant delay, and therefore cannot be considered reflective of the current economic trend. There is every reason to expect that, following the introduction of large-scale import tariffs, the U.S. will face a slowdown in economic growth and a rise in unemployment. Consequently, the April Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports will be far more important than the March JOLTS data.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is no point in discussing fundamental events other than Trump's trade war. The dollar's decline may continue indefinitely as long as Trump keeps imposing new tariffs and raising existing ones. Any escalation could lead to another drop in the dollar, while any de-escalation could strengthen it.

The U.S. president has started to soften his rhetoric toward China, but this has not yet resulted in de-escalation. Knowing Trump, it would not be surprising if, after announcing a tariff reduction for China, he raises them again.

Donald Trump stated that he does not intend to maintain tariffs on Chinese goods at the 145% level, which triggered a wave of relief across markets. However, the dollar did not experience any surge in optimism. The market sees no concrete signs of de-escalation and thus is in no hurry to buy the U.S. currency. Even on Monday, when there was no news, and traders were eager to act, the market preferred to continue selling the dollar.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the new week, both currency pairs could move in either direction, but we will most likely continue to observe flat trading—at least for the euro. The pound sterling still shows a much greater willingness to rise, and it does not need any news.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.