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February 17, 2020 12:48 pm

Fundamental analysis for the week of February 17-21, 2020

Monday, 02/17


The beginning of the week will not be rich in news publications, and market sentiment is determined mainly by the theme of coronavirus. On Monday you should pay attention to the yen, as preliminary data on Japanese GDP should show another slowdown in economic growth, which will put pressure on the Japanese currency.


The European currency will also be under pressure, since construction data should show that slight growth has already given way to recession.


Tuesday, 02/18


The only news that should be paid attention on Tuesday will be statistics on the labor market in the UK, which may provide support to the sterling. After all, the unemployment rate should decrease from 3.8% to 3.7% due to an increase in employment by 120 thousand. In addition, the wage growth rate in the country is expected to accelerate.


Wednesday, 02/19


On Wednesday, data on inflation in the UK will be released. Experts predict that consumer price growth will remain unchanged, so strong market reactions should not follow.


Canada will also present its inflation data, experts expect a decrease from 2.2% to 2.1%. If the forecast is confirmed, the Canadian dollar will respond with a decline.


Of greatest interest will be data on producer prices in the United States, the growth rate of which may accelerate from 1.3% to 1.7%. This may be another confirmation of the correctness of the course to strengthen the dollar, as rising prices only increase the likelihood of an increase in the Fed's refinancing rate in the future.


Thursday, 02/20


Australia will report labor market data on Thursday that could weaken the Australian dollar. Analysts forecast an increase in unemployment from 5.1% to 5.2%.


The British sterling, in contrast, may receive significant support after the release of retail sales data. The indicator is expected to accelerate from 0.9% to 4.0%. Such an impressive increase in consumer activity portends a significant increase in inflation, which, in turn, will help to delay the decision to lower the Bank of England refinancing rate for the second half of the year.


But in the United States a slight increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits is expected.


Friday, 02/21


At the end of the week, the Japanese yen will again be under pressure amid the expected decline in inflation from 0.8% to 0.7%. Other world currencies will show increased volatility on Friday: first, the euro and the pound will weaken amid a decline in the index of business activity in Europe and Britain. The United States is also expected to decline in business activity indices in all areas.


However, at the end of the day, the euro may get support by responding to inflation data, which is expected to show growth from 1.3% to 1.4%.


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