According to a report published on the website of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in 2023, global trade volume decreased by 5% compared to the record level of 2022 and amounted to about $30.7 trillion. In monetary terms, the decrease amounted to approximately $1.5 trillion. This decline is due to increased geopolitical tensions, as well as the weakening of interdependence between China and the United States, which has a significant impact on global trade. The report predicts a reduction in global trade in goods by about $2 trillion in 2023, but trade in services will increase by $500 billion. Exports from developing countries have been low this year, and South-South trade has declined sharply. The volume of trade in East Asia remained below average. Forecasts for 2024 remain unclear, but in general they are quite pessimistic. Earlier, a report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) was published, in which experts warned of a sharp increase in unilateral trade measures that threaten the future of the global economy and could lead to its fragmentation. It is also expected that the imposition of economic sanctions against Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine will have a negative impact on most economies of the world. The WTO forecasts global GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024.
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