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July 19, 2019 12:03 pm

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 19, 2019

Yesterday, markets were surprised after high expectations of a decline in volatility after the remarks of NY Fed President, John Williams. 

He mentioned without beating around the bush that to take action now is a better option, then face the consequences after and in order to prevent further worsening, it is wiser to “take preventative measures”. 

The possibility of a 50 basis point cut later this month pushed the futures market to soar by more than 65% amid the Fed rhetoric.  At the same time, the remarks has influenced the expectations to adjust slightly lower with the probability of reduction by 25 or 50 bps at their July meeting. 

At the same time, the dollar had a deep drop with all the probable events on the side. Meanwhile, the major currency against the dollar as more certain in the precious metals. 

Yesterday, the forecast showed us a slow upward movement and overall recovery after the steep fall on Tuesday, which was primarily driven by the US retail sales beat. 

Clearly, this changed after the increase amid the dovish rhetoric of the Fed yesterday. The euro major pair rose above the 1.1265 mark, although it wasn’t able to sustain the move. Meanwhile, a bullish flag pattern was seen on the hourly chart. 

A drop to 1.1237 is necessary for the bulls with the presence of buyers. Meanwhile, the pair is under pressure during the European session. The attempt to reach the level of 1.1265 has induced selling for short-term. A bearish engulfing candle is anticipated on the hourly chart. Yet, the Fed speech yesterday could turn the table in the market. Hence, I would not be surprised for the drop in value to be supported in the pair with the pivot level of 1.1265. Then, the support will likely be around 1.1237. 


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