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Yield curve inversion continues as 30-year T-bond yields dropped to a record low

Thu Aug 29, 2019
watermark Economic news

The 30-yield US Treasury yields plunged to an all-time low as people get wary of recession and trade tension between the US and China that pushed the demand for low-risk government debt. 

An inversion was seen across the US yield curve as short-term yields are moving ahead of long-term ones. This worried investors as commonly an inversion in yield curves result in a recession. 

The 30-year yields are lower than the 3-month Treasury bills that have not occurred since 2007. Meanwhile, the spread on 3-month T-bills grew against the 10-year yields by around 55 basis points, which again were not seen since March 2007. On the other hand, the 2-year yields rose as much as 6.5 basis points against the 10-year yields, based on the figures of Refinitiv and Tradeweb data. 

On early Wednesday, the 30-year government bonds reached a record low of 1.905% from 2.2 basis points on Tuesday. Furthermore, the 30-year bonds dropped to 1.939% on late Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, a co-head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in Missouri, Brian Rehling, said that a deeper inversion would mean a significant slowdown is probable in the future. There is a likelihood for a recession in a year or a year and a half. However, it should be noted that this is “not a done deal”. 

Investors are leaning to safe-haven assets as the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hopes to minimize the risks in suspending the Brexit plan through suspension of the House of Commons for a month since the middle of September. 

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