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November 30, 2020 08:59 am

Fundamental Forecast for the week of November 30 – December 4

Monday, November 30


The beginning of the trading week will be quite busy. The day kicks off with the release of data on retail sales and industrial production in Japan. Retail sales unexpectedly rose from -8.7% to 6.4%, much better than the -7.7% forecast. Industrial production in the country in October increased by 3.8% versus September (3.9%).


The pound sterling on Monday may show a visible weakening, as a noticeable slowdown in the growth of the lending market is expected. In particular, the volume of mortgage lending should grow by 4.3 billion pounds. In the previous month, it rose 4.8 billion pounds. Since the real estate market is one of the main criteria for determining the investment attractiveness of the British economy, a decrease in activity in this market will negatively affect the pound.


Germany on Monday will provide data on consumer prices in November, and the US – the index of pending real estate sales.


Tuesday, December 1


Tuesday kicks off with a meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, but this will have little impact on the Australian dollar. Market participants have no doubt that the regulator will leave its monetary policy unchanged and will not make any statements regarding further plans.


The main event of the day will be the publication of the preliminary inflation estimate in the eurozone. It is expected that the rate of decline in consumer prices should remain unchanged, and this may seriously affect investor sentiment. In other words, this means that deflation in Europe has been going on for the fourth consecutive month, which should force the European Central Bank to expand its stimulus measures.


Wednesday, December 2


Wednesday will begin with data on GDP of Australia: statistics may show a slowdown in the rate of economic decline from -6.3% to -5.0%, which will provide the Australian dollar with some support.


But the single European currency will continue to remain under pressure, as the unemployment rate in Europe is expected to rise from 8.3% to 8.4%. So if in the US the labor market is recovering, then in Europe unemployment continues to grow, which does not add optimism.


By the end of the day, the US is to publish data on employment, which could rise by 300 thousand, which contrasts sharply with the European data.


Thursday, December 3


The euro will remain under pressure on Thursday. This time the retail sales data will act as a negative factor, the growth rates of which may slow down from 2.2% to 1.4%.


However, then the rate of weakening of the single European currency may slow down, as forecasts for applications for unemployment benefits in the US cause certain concerns. The fact is that the number of repeated calls should decrease, while the number of initial calls can grow. All indications are that the labor market recovery is seriously slowing down and the unemployment rate is still quite high.


Friday, December 4


Friday will not be an active day, since the economic calendar is practically empty on this day. Of interest is only the content of the report of the US Department of Labor.


Formally, the forecasts are quite optimistic: the unemployment rate may decrease from 6.9% to 6.8%, and 520 thousand new jobs should be created outside agriculture.


However, it is alarming that 906 thousand new jobs were created in the previous month. In other words, the pace of labor market recovery is indeed slowing sharply. Therefore, the likelihood is high that Friday will end with sales of the US dollar.


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El mercado de divisas es altamente especulativo y complejo por naturaleza, y puede no ser adecuado para todos los inversores. Las operaciones en Forex pueden resultar en ganancias o pérdidas sustanciales. Por lo tanto, no es aconsejable invertir dinero que no puede permitirse perder. Antes de utilizar los servicios ofrecidos por ForexMart, reconozca los riesgos asociados con las operaciones en Forex. Busque asesoramiento financiero independiente si es necesario. Tenga en cuenta que ni el rendimiento pasado ni los pronósticos son indicadores confiables de resultados futuros.